Russia vs the EU

Putin’s Russia ignores the European attempt by Foreign Minister Borrell to have a managed relationship and sends three EU-diplomats packing for doing their job. This will have wider repercussions, in Europe and beyond.

EU Foreign Minister Josep Borrell visited Moscow to lodge a strong protest against the treatment of Alexei Navalny and his supporters in their own country. Not surprisingly this was forcefully rebutted on the occasion of the respective press conference by his Russian homologue Sergei Lavrov. But later in the same conference Borrell also expressed hope that the Russian Covid Vaccine ‘Sputnik V’ could be certified by the European Medicine Agency. This after the international validation of Sputnik by a leading Western scientific journal. Rather than acknowledging the outstretched hand in an area where cooperation appears possible between Russia and Europe, Lavrov replicated with the expulsion of three diplomats from EU-states. Alleging that they had participated in manifestations of Nawalny supporters.

That demonstrates how nervous Putin has become with regard to the ever growing fame of his main political opponent. It is also especially rich coming from  life-long professional diplomat Lavrov. He knows exactly that the very essence of the work by a  foreign envoy consists in following all politically relevant developments in his guest country. On the same occasion, and always appearing side by side with the Foreign Minister of the EU, Lavrov  brought up the Trump-era boycotts against Cuba. Presumably to illustrate the Russian view of Western hypocrisy. 

 The message that Borrell will have taken back to Brussels is clear. Russia is not interested in any cooperation anywhere with the EU when and where the egregious human rights violations of the Putin government are brought up. One of the reactions might well be that the European Parliament will come up with its own version of a Magnitzky Act, targeting the Putin cronies where it hurts. That is in their financial wheeling-dealing in Europe. On another front, it might also endanger the completion of the Nord Stream Gas pipeline, squashing a project especially dear to the geopolitical heart of Putin and his fellow kleptocrats in the natural resources industry.

 Much has been made in the media about how the old fox Lavrov had outwitted his inexperienced European counterpart. (link)

Borrell had indeed a particularly difficult brief to take to Moscow. He represents a divided group of countries with regard to their attitude towards Russia. Angela Merkel has so far always tried to compartmentalize the economic relationship between Germany and Russia from other, clearly unsavory aspects of Putin’s reign. Such as his disregard for international borders in the Ukraine, his personal contempt for all norms of democratic and law-abiding behavior solemnly pledged to obey in the OSCE context by his country not long ago as well as his cyber-meddling in Western elections. Whether this German policy can, and will be maintained in the face of such openly hostile behaviour towards the EU is in doubt. Whoever succeeds Merkel will have to weigh this particular national interest against the hardening German support for a more unified EU as the only way for Europe to stay relevant on the global level.

Unhelpful in this context is the stubborn refusal of France to join the majority of EU countries, especially in the North and East of Europe in favor of a more confrontational approach towards Russia. Macron remains caught in a French attitude of the past that a dialogue with ‘the Russian czar’ has to be maintained at all costs in the interest of power balance in Europe. Another facet of his gaullist streak which has, and will continue to cost him dearly. Not in the least within France itself.

Beyond Europe the ramifications could be considerable when looking at parallels in other parts of the world. Such as the Indo-Pacific where another autocratic and increasingly nationalist regime tries to bully regional opponents it considers inferior to its raw power into silence towards human rights violations. Xi’s China attitude towards Australian criticism over Hongkong follows the same pattern as Putin in his dealings with the EU: you criticise what we consider ‘internal affairs’ and we hit back with the political and economic sledgehammer. Much will now depend whether the Western world will unite towards China and Russia in its resolve to stand up for what we hold dearest.

The key lies in Washington where the new administration will have registered attentively what happened in Moscow. Given the new emphasis on human rights by the Biden government, the first clash with Russia appears programmed. American leadership in this area is especially needed after four years of Trumpian personal bonhomie between autocratic leaders.

Picture: МИД России